Integrity of qualitative methods for exploring the future and meta-images of advanced reflection

Keywords: forecasting, strategic analysis, scenario planning, integration of the future research, critical uncertainties

Abstract

It is determined that the confrontation of «classical» forecasting, strategic analysis, scenario planning leads to the need of introducing ‘exploring the future’ concept which combines all the various methods. Since in the unstable, chaotic development of social processes actualizes the qualitative methods of exploring the future, therefore, a change in their ‘outdated, classical’ classification is necessary. It is proved that in accordance with the domination and orientation of technologization, methods are divided into: subject-oriented (alignment of subjective positions), heuristic (orientation on creative decision), object-oriented, organizational-oriented, complex methods.Modern trends in the development of the future prove unity in diversity, in contrast to the totality of one or another sphere of the future reflection. Some linear trends and the idea of extrapolation are not enough and, actually, not sufficiently separate fragmentary research methodologies of the future, which proved their effectiveness in confronting each other, so, all that requires a holistic methodology for the integration and differentiation of strategic, forecast, scenario and other analyzes that have experience of successful advanced reflection. It is shown that the search for holistic methodologies on the principle of ‘unity in diversity’ is defined by meta-images that create ‘zoning’ and mapping of the world of advanced future analysis with its landscape, traps, threats and opportunities. Such meta-images in future studies are considered as: a derivative (mapping of an essential process or a critical risk for social life); flow (in different environments and spheres); space (as well as fields, environments, spheres); attraction / repulsion and the problem of three bodies; public consciousness and perception of the nervous system of the organization (or society); unexpected and critical uncertainties (‘black swans’, ‘wild cards and jokers’, others); explosion of energy (explosions, tsunamis, earthquakes, phase transitions and others).All of this puts new horizons for future research in finding the conditions for an adequate choice and integration of the future study, a new system of predictive preparation in the struggle for a valuable resource of the future, the strategy of society and the formation of its perspective. This prognostic culture and the perspective of education has its own method of entering a new noosphere level, as a metaphor for a breakthrough to an artefact within which there is a global integrity.

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Published
2018-04-08
How to Cite
Lepskiy, M. A. (2018). Integrity of qualitative methods for exploring the future and meta-images of advanced reflection. Grani, 21(2), 52-59. https://doi.org/10.15421/171816
Section
Article